Sunday, October 31, 2004

Election predictions

Ok, well, since everyone else is doing it, I might as well. As you all know by now, I've worked my ass off for Kerry here in Florida. I've canvassed, worked an Edwards rally, phone banked, etc. I think I have changed some minds, but that being said, I dont think it will be enough this time.

Here are my election predictions: 49.2% Bush and 48.6% Kerry

Bush wins with 279 EVs, 259 for Kerry.

Bush gets all the states that he won in 2000 including FL and OH (I think Kerry made a mistake to focus so much on OH)...and also gains MO and NM...

except for NH (Kerry will take that one)...

So, that's my prediction...in my dreams, Kerry would get both OH and FL which would be basically a landslide for Kerry and we could start getting this country on the right track again...but I'm not sure if the country is ready for that yet...they are still just too divided, and there is too little substance to the debate going on throughout the media...

I do think that the media is the problem, and I think that is where the Democrats need to focus in the future...the Republicans have been so successful in defining the media as being liberal, even though any impartial observer would think that was crazy...

The media is about ratings and sensationalism, and thats the way this election was run...it wasn't about truth, it was about ratings, and what a shame for democracy...this election should have been about the issues and the real questions facing this country, but it wasn't...

That being said, I think that the questions will have to be faced soon by the Bush administration, and if they don't (hopefully) do too much damage, the Democrats will have a chance to fix it...so my future predictions...if Bush wins...the Democrats will gain a house in Congress in two years...

Will see what happens...if Kerry wins, it will be wonderful...I just dont feel it right now...


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